Climate activists often claim that the weather is getting worse due to temperature changes caused by greenhouse emissions, leading to more frequent and intense events such as heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires, and powerful storms.
Such claims may concern car wash and detail operators because weather conditions can affect revenues. However, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) the average everyday weather (good versus bad) isn’t simply getting worse or better.
Rather, extreme events are increasing in severity and frequency. So, while everyday weather may not be worse, many trends point toward worsening conditions.
NOAA reports that the average summertime temperature in the U.S. has increased by 2.6 degrees between 1970 and 2024, with winter temperatures increasing by 4 degrees. The EPA expects the average temperature to increase by several degrees by 2060, resulting in earlier and longer summers, more extreme days, and increased health risks.
In addition, if you have a business located near the coastline, rising sea levels from climate change may present a threat, including nuisance flooding, infra-structure damage, and land erosion.
Over the last 100 years, there has been a 6-to-8-inch rise in sea levels, primarily due to ocean warming and melting ice. Experts predict that sea level increases of +/- .75 to 1.5 inches per year are considered dependable for the short term. They are less confident about the long term but expect the broad trend of rising sea levels will continue.
Those in northern climates are experiencing less snow than in 1970. According to the EPA, the typical rate of decline is 0.19 percent per year. Although there are variations by region, the broad trend is for less snow in the future.
There hasn’t been much change in overall rainfall, but the number of days with intense rainfall has increased, up 0.5 percent per decade since 1900.
Overall, there has been no large nationwide trend in the percent of possible sunshine. On average, sunny desert areas are around 70 to 90 percent, temperate coastal areas 40 to 60 percent, and cloudy regions 20 to 40 percent.
On the positive side, since 2000, there has been a 37 percent decrease in particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the U.S. and a 29 percent decrease in 24-hour PM. PM is a mix of tiny solid particles and liquid droplets in the air that can be ingested.
Ozone (O3), a major contributor to urban smog, has been decreasing since 1980. The number of high ozone days has dropped by 30 to 40 percent. Average annual carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations have decreased by more than 80 percent since 1980. And the total nitrogen dioxides (NOx) emissions (another contributor to urban smog) have decreased by 60 percent since 1990.
Greenhouse gases ― including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide ― contribute to atmospheric warming. According to the EPA, greenhouse gases have decreased by 10 to 15 percent since 2007. So, greenhouse gases and other air pollutants have been reduced, and yet, we continue to experience an increase in the effects of atmospheric and ocean warming.
As NASA states, climate models are not weather forecasts. There is no single correlation coefficient or confidence interval estimate associated with broad climate trends. For example, climate scientists rely on ensemble modeling. This is a machine-learning and/or statistical approach that combines multiple and different types of models to produce a single prediction.
So how might this information be used by car wash and detail operators?
If you have a business located in an area where the trend has been less snowfall, should you expect “dry” winter months sometime in the future? The answer is no. What you might expect is for the broad trend to continue (.19 percent decrease per year).
If you have a wash along a coastline that is near sea level, should you expect to see it underwater sometime in the future? No. What you might expect is the continuation of the broad trend and greater occurrence of nuisance flooding and business disruption.
Bob is an industry consultant with more than 25 years of experience and is a former operator of car wash, oil change, and detail businesses. He can be reached at (727) 723-9474 or bobr427@protonmail.com.