Back in the early 2000’s, mobile car washer, futurist, and think-tanker Lance Winslow predicted the car wash industry would converge into two types of operations: high-volume exterior washes at low prices and full-serve in affluent markets.
Of course, Winslow was not the only prophet, but perhaps one of the first to speak out publicly about the industry consensus forming at the time. Namely, labor economics will split the car wash industry into two dominant models.
Although it depends on whose data you use, the current market share is roughly 45 to 55 percent express exterior, 15 to 25 percent full service, and self-service and in-bay split the remainder.
Based on recent trends in construction, conversions, and repositioning, there is no going back. Express exterior will continue to be the dominant wash format and the subscription economy its principal revenue source. The future will bring smarter, more efficient washes with virtual assistance, automated loading, virtual QA/QC, and more sophisticated management tools and analytics.
We may even see a split occur within full-service between sites with robotics and those without. Arguably, robotics is the future of the segment. Labor costs are eating up profits, but high turnover rates are further complicating matters.
More than 70 percent employee turnover is not uncommon, and it can reach 100 percent for part-time employees. A robotic system capable of producing 8 to 10 cars per hour in a single service bay, requiring only one employee to oversee it, would be a game-changer.
Such a system may also allow for new business models. For example, two robotic bays paired with two in-bay automatics on a half-acre site could be a viable plug-and-play in many markets, even with express dominance. Any increase in labor to chase a niche market would not be appealing to a PE-backed or large multi-site operator of express washes.
AI can help operators learn, move faster, and view things from a different perspective. For example, when I studied the car wash industry, most of the literature was focused on the equipment, chemicals, maintenance, and customer service.
I was told that the car wash was a collection of individual sub-systems, and tunnels should be thought of in terms of thirds: wash, rinse/wax, and dry. I was also taught that you can’t make up tomorrow for what you did not wash today.
While some of this still applies, a more holistic approach is needed to compete. For example, a comprehensive technology stack is needed to run a wash today. It should consist of different layers: frontend, backend, database, infrastructure, and integration.
I asked AI to help create a system that would drive throughput, membership growth, and labor efficiency. The result was described as what an integrated, top-tier setup would look like.
• LPR-triggered gate with a POS that auto-recognizes members.
• Tunnel auto-adjusts wash based on each vehicle.
• AI vision verifies quality.
• Customers receive app notifications and up-sell promotions.
• Data feeds into a central dashboard.
• Marketing automation drives repeat visits.
Some of these are currently available off the shelf, such as LPR, POS, subscription payment systems, cloud-based dashboards, and CRM automation. What is not as readily available or integrated is advanced marketing stuff such as portals, optimization platforms, and analytics.
Auto-adjust, AI vision, predictive maintenance, and advanced virtual assistants are all in the works, and it’s not going to be inexpensive.
All of this should be of interest to multi-site operators who want to centralize everything and replicate. As for smaller operations, they will have to find a balance between need, resistance to change, and the cost of AI-powered automation.
Bob is an industry consultant with more than 25 years of experience and is a former operator of car wash, oil change, and detail businesses. He can be reached at (727) 723-9474 or bobr427@protonmail.com.